Stock Market Insights: When the headlines feel heavy, stay grounded

Joe Shearrer, CPFA® is Vice President and Wealth Advisor at Fervent Wealth Management.

On Monday morning, my wife dropped our 10-year-old son off at church camp. It’s his first time spending four nights away from home. Throughout the day I kept thinking about all the things I couldn't control. Would he make friends? Would he remember to put on sunscreen? Would he sleep well? As parents, our minds naturally drift toward every possible scenario.Then it hit me: investing often feels the same way.

When uncertainty rises, our instinct is to focus on everything that could go wrong instead of remembering what has consistently gone right over time. That feels especially relevant this week. Despite earnings broadly exceeding expectations, equity markets have experienced increased volatility in July as policy has once again been the biggest driver of market action.

By the time you read this, the Federal Reserve will likely have announced its latest interest rate decision. As I write this article, however, investors are still waiting. Markets widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, but what Chairman Kevin Warsh says afterward could have an even greater impact than the decision itself. Investors will be listening carefully for clues about inflation, however, Kevin Warsh’s tight-lipped posture may not give us the direction of future policy that we’ve come to expect. With recession risk low and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle unlikely, the conditions that typically end bull markets do not appear imminent.

Adding to the uncertainty, military strikes involving Iran have continued to escalate concerns in the Middle East. Oil prices have moved sharply higher as traders worry about potential supply disruptions. Higher energy prices can work their way through the economy by increasing transportation and manufacturing costs, which can make inflation more stubborn than many had hoped. While disruptions to energy markets have created uncertainty, we continue to believe the macroeconomic backdrop is supportive of additional stock market gains over the balance of 2026. The S&P 500 is down less than one percent month to date as of market close July 28^th.

Meanwhile, technology stocks (which have carried much of the market's gains over the past year) have stumbled in July. Investors are questioning whether the massive investments being made in artificial intelligence will generate enough earnings to justify today's valuations. With several major technology companies reporting earnings this week, volatility has increased even further.

So what should investors do?

The answer is probably less exciting than many would like. Periods like this are exactly why successful investing requires a plan instead of predictions. History reminds us that markets regularly face wars, geopolitical conflicts, inflation scares, interest rate uncertainty, elections, recessions and unexpected global events. Yet despite those challenges, disciplined investors who remained diversified and stayed invested have generally been rewarded over the long term.

That doesn't mean ignoring risk. It means managing it appropriately.

Review your portfolio. Make sure your investments still align with your goals and risk tolerance. If recent gains have left one area of your portfolio much larger than intended, consider rebalancing. Continue investing consistently if you're still accumulating assets. And perhaps most importantly, don't let emotional headlines dictate long-term financial decisions. Trying to guess what the Fed will say this afternoon or how tomorrow's headlines will affect oil prices is a difficult game to win consistently. Building a portfolio that can withstand uncertainty is a much more reliable strategy.

As for our son, we'll pick him up later this week. I'm sure he'll have stories we never expected, new friendships and experiences that helped him grow. Looking back, the worrying wouldn't have changed a single outcome. Investing works much the same way. We can't eliminate uncertainty, but we can prepare for it. When we accept that volatility is part of the journey instead of a reason to abandon the plan, we're far more likely to reach the destination we're working toward.

Have a blessed week!

Joe Shearrer

www.FerventWM.com

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.

Opinions voiced above are for general information only and not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any person. All performance cited is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Any economic forecast outlined in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

Fervent Wealth Management is a financial management and services entity in Springfield, Missouri.