Stock Market Insights: Show me the money – what’s next for markets?

When I was in high school, I worked at a local video store. Back then, people left home, drove to a store, and wandered the aisles looking for a movie to rent. You’d take the VHS tape home for a one-night rental and then return it the next day (hopefully remembering to rewind it for my sake).

One of the most popular movies at the time was Jerry Maguire. Even if you’ve never seen the entire movie, you probably know its most famous scene. Cuba Gooding Jr.’s character has Jerry, played by Tom Cruise, repeatedly screaming into the phone: “Show me the money!” It got me thinking that phrase may perfectly describe where investors find themselves with investments in artificial intelligence. 

But AI isn’t the only major story to watch. Four themes could play an important role in shaping markets during the second half of 2026.

AI’s next act: Show me the money

Companies have poured enormous sums into data centers, advanced semiconductors and the electricity infrastructure required to power AI. However, after all that spending, investors are increasingly sounding like Cuba Gooding Jr., asking “Show Me the Money.”

The early winners were mostly companies supplying the infrastructure needed to build AI systems. The next chapter may focus on identifying businesses that can use AI to increase productivity and generate new revenue. Simply announcing an AI strategy may no longer be enough; investors increasingly want evidence of sustainable profits and portfolio-worthy returns.

A new era at the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is also entering a period of change under new leadership. The new chairman will have plenty on his plate, including stubborn inflation, concerns about economic growth and jobs, and no shortage of political pressure over where interest rates should go next.

Financial markets place tremendous value on a credible and independent Federal Reserve. Investors will closely watch how the central bank navigates the ongoing concerns it faces. The key question may not simply be whether interest rates go up or down. It may be whether investors remain confident that monetary policy decisions are being driven by economic data rather than politics, and what that means for portfolio positioning.

When commodities become national security

Governments increasingly view critical minerals as strategic national assets. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe’s dependence on foreign energy, while conflict in the Middle East has again highlighted vulnerabilities in global energy supplies.

Critical minerals are essential for AI infrastructure, along with other industries like electric grids, advanced manufacturing and national defense. This shift could create opportunities for miners, critical mineral processors, energy producers and oilfield service companies as countries seek more secure and diversified supply chains, and it may also shape how investors think about portfolios.

The midterm elections

Midterm election years have historically brought periods of elevated market volatility, and control of Congress is at stake this November. However, what happens after Election Day may matter more than the campaign itself.

A divided Congress could create gridlock, making sweeping policy changes more difficult. That could benefit industries where existing government spending or subsidies are already in place. Healthcare is another sector to watch, while banks could face uncertainty if a change in congressional control slows deregulation efforts. Ultimately, investors should be cautious about making major portfolio decisions based solely on election predictions. Markets have performed under both political parties, and economic growth, corporate earnings, and interest rates generally matter more over the long run, so portfolios should stay focused on those drivers.

As we head into the second half of 2026, investors have plenty to watch. AI companies will be asked to turn massive spending into real profits; the Federal Reserve will navigate inflation and interest rates; governments will compete for strategic resources; and voters will determine the balance of power in Washington. The goal isn’t to predict every headline. It’s to build a strategy that can navigate whatever comes next.

Nearly 30 years after working at that video store, Rod Tidwell’s famous demand still seems fitting for investors today: Show me the money.

Have a blessed week!

www.FerventWM.com