An estimate does not a final price make

The Ole Seagull has spoken with some who believe the city may be spending too much on land for the indoor sports complex in the Gretna Road TIF project. The only public figure he could find was an estimate of $6.6 million in Exhibit 4 of the “Amended Gretna Road and Town and Country Drive Tax Increment Financing Plan, Branson, Missouri,” submitted to the board of aldermen after a public hearing in the summer of 2025.

First, the title of the section with the figure, “Categories and Estimated Amounts of Redevelopment and Reimbursable Project Costs,” contains a clue as to the source of the $6.6 million figure. That clue lies in two words: “Estimated Amounts.” Most people dealing with an estimate expect things to change before they become final. This is reinforced in this case by Footnote 2 to the exhibit reading “All amounts listed below are estimates subject to change based on market conditions, future design and performance of the uses within each Redevelopment Project.”

Having served three different TIF commissions, the Ole Seagull can state with some certainty that the TIF report is only the beginning of a long process of developing and financing the projects in the proposed “TIF area.” Many things will change as negotiations and financial realities develop. What will not change, however, is the TIF Commission’s primary purpose and its statutory recommendations to the Branson Board of Aldermen.

The TIF Commission’s duties were to review the evidence, hold public hearings, and present the board of aldermen with eleven mandatory statutory decisions as an initial step before any tax increment financing can be put in motion.

The commissioners had to rule whether the 136-acre study area was “blighted” in the legal sense, i.e., property in unsafe or deteriorating condition that burdens the public. Public hearings turned up steep cliffs, unlit perimeters, squatter camps and illegal dumping. These hazards are an economic drag on the community.

Then there is the “but for” test. Statute demands proof that private enterprise would not reasonably develop the land without public money. For years, private capital has passed these parcels by because clearing brush and dealing with the topography was too expensive. Without tax increment financing to put future tax gains toward site cleanup, the land is dead in the water.

The commission also had to confirm conformity with the city’s comprehensive plan, set a ten-year deadline for adopting ordinances, and establish a twenty-three-year window for completing all work and retiring any bonds or loans. The commission had to verify a legal relocation plan for displaced parties, as well as a cost-benefit analysis showing net revenue gains for schools and other taxing jurisdictions.

They also ensured the plan contained no gambling establishments, required annual reporting to the state for relocated businesses and limited project boundaries to parcels that would benefit from the improvements.

With positive marks on every count the TIF Commissioner voted to recommend approval of the TIF Plan and send a resolution to the Branson Board of Aldermen saying, “With the approval of this Plan, as required by the TIF Act, the TIF Commission has recommended to the Board of Aldermen that the Board of Aldermen make the findings as set forth below, and the Board of Aldermen has made the findings set forth below, based upon the record of the public hearing on the Plan and the evidence submitted during the public hearing on the Plan, including but not limited to the information in this Plan concerning blight, the positive impact of development on taxing jurisdictions and the affidavit of the Developer attached as Exhibit 11.”

To the best of his knowledge, city staff, consultants and the developer are working to negotiate a final agreement for the land purchase portion, which should be completed by the end of November 2026. “Ah, Seagull, do you believe that the city will pay $6.6 million for the land?” No! If they do, they are nuts! The good news is that the folks working on the negotiations - city staff, consultants and developers alike - are anything but nuts; they see the project’s value not only to the city of Branson but to themselves.